Goes without saying ?! The fact is there are so many things that have to go right and come together at the right time that forecasting in your businesses is always going to be a bit like predicting who is going to win the X Factor from the initial pool of several hundred thousand contestants.
No opportunity is a sure fire bet until the ink is dry on the paper. Even then we have all heard of deals that could not get booked because of one problem or another. But still we must go through the painful motions on a weekly basis and then again ever more frequently during informal chats with just about everyone in between.
Thank goodness, I hear you cry, we have a methodology; there's pipeline, best case, commit, forecast, back to marketing, unopened, contacted working etc.. etc.. And all the gorey details can be loaded in triplicate into the sales force automation system - Lord help us !! On a personal level there is no better forecast than 'gut feel'. The problem is that feeling sits deep down within your gut and yours alone. You have lived it afterall and are closer than anyone else to the warm glow of a potential commission cheque.
Your gut cannot be transfered to anyone else least of all the team on the receiving end who unfortunately have to massage yours with the global view of interpretation. Add in the layers and structure through which all forecasts are blended and its a wonder the very idea of forcasting has not been relaced altogether by lets think, perhaps a wet finger in the air?! Better still, lets put all the prospect names into hat and pull them out and stick 'em on our foreheads!!
Of course an accurate forecast takes pragmatism, maturity, sober reflection on all sides and the first hand experience gained from regular customer contact. The problem is we all often get carried away with ourselves and some hardly ever talk to prospects or customers!! In addition, if you are in sales you are likely to be quite immature and well, sober reflection, is something we are only capable of for the first few hours of any normal working day!!
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